论文标题
网络模型在中国对COVID-19的四层响应系统和空间传播
Four-tier response system and spatial propagation of COVID-19 in China by a network model
论文作者
论文摘要
为了研究锁定和社会距离限制的有效性，这些限制已被广泛地作为遏制世界各地持续的Covid-19的政策选择，我们根据经典的Seair流行病学模型制定并讨论了一个基于古典SEAIR流行病学模型的分阶段和称重的网络系统。根据对公共卫生危机的四层反应，已经考虑了五个阶段，该危机来自中国国家应急计划。已经得出了交错的基本繁殖数字，我们评估了中国大陆19个城市/地区在不同情况下的锁定和社会距离政策的有效性。此外，我们根据城市之间的人口迁移率和某些非药物干预措施的强度估计与顺序释放相关的感染风险。我们的结果表明，I级公共卫生应急响应对于高风险城市来说是必要的，这可以有效，快速地使COVID-19曲线扁平。此外，精心设计的交错释放政策对于预防和控制Covid-19，此外，对经济活动以及社会稳定与发展有益。
In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and weighed networked system based on a classical SEAIR epidemiological model. Five stages have been taken into consideration according to four-tier response to Public Health Crisis, which comes from the National Contingency Plan in China. Staggered basic reproduction number has been derived and we evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing policies under different scenarios among 19 cities/regions in mainland China. Further, we estimate the infection risk associated with the sequential release based on population mobility between cities and the intensity of some non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reveal that Level I public health emergency response is necessary for high-risk cities, which can flatten the COVID-19 curve effectively and quickly. Moreover, properly designed staggered-release policies are extremely significant for the prevention and control of COVID-19, furthermore, beneficial to economic activities and social stability and development.
