论文标题
Covid-19的流行病学预测考虑了锁定政策和社会行为：玻利维亚案
Epidemiological projections for COVID-19 considering lockdown policies and social behavior: the case of Bolivia
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用Tsallis的建议来评估SARS-COV-2的流行状况，以确定峰值的发生，以及易感感染的反射 - 症状 - 症状 - 症状和死亡（\ textbf {sirASD}）室内模型。使用这两个模型，我们确定了一系列可能的峰日期，并研究了流行病期间的几个社会距离情景。由于社会经济状况和冲突的政治气氛，我们接受了玻利维亚的案例，玻利维亚的案件原定于9月6日举行，最近在10月18日重新安排了玻利维亚。为此，我们分析了选举场景，并表明这种事件在很大程度上会影响流行病的动态。
We assess the epidemic situation caused by SARS-CoV-2 using Tsallis' proposal for determining the occurrence of the peak, and also the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic and Dead (\textbf{SIRASD}) compartmental model. Using these two models, we determine a range of probable peak dates and study several social distancing scenarios during the epidemic. Due to the socioeconomic situation and the conflictive political climate, we take for our study the case of Bolivia, where a national election was originally scheduled to occur on September 6th and recently rescheduled on October 18th. For this, we analyze both electoral scenarios and show that such an event can largely affect the epidemic's dynamics.
