论文标题

免费午餐!在ROI限制内进行动态促销建议的回顾性提升建模

Free Lunch! Retrospective Uplift Modeling for Dynamic Promotions Recommendation within ROI Constraints

论文作者

Goldenberg, Dmitri, Albert, Javier, Bernardi, Lucas, Estevez, Pablo

论文摘要

促销和折扣已成为现代电子商务平台的关键组成部分。对于在线旅行平台(OTP),受欢迎的促销活动包括房间升级,免费餐和运输服务。通过提供这些促销活动,客户可以获得更多价值,而OTP及其旅行伙伴都可以增加其忠实的客户群。但是,促销通常会产生的成本,如果不受控制,可能会变得不可持续。因此,为了使促销变得可行,其相关成本必须通过设定的财务限制内的增量收入来平衡。个性化的治疗分配可用于满足此类限制。 本文介绍了一种新型的隆重建模技术,依赖于背包问题的表述,该技术可以动态优化按需的投资回报率(ROI)约束。该技术利用回顾性估计,这是一种仅依赖于积极结果示例的数据的建模方法。该方法还解决了通过在线障碍的培训数据偏见,长期效果和季节性挑战。通过离线实验和在线随机对照试验进行了测试。

Promotions and discounts have become key components of modern e-commerce platforms. For online travel platforms (OTPs), popular promotions include room upgrades, free meals and transportation services. By offering these promotions, customers can get more value for their money, while both the OTP and its travel partners may grow their loyal customer base. However, the promotions usually incur a cost that, if uncontrolled, can become unsustainable. Consequently, for a promotion to be viable, its associated costs must be balanced by incremental revenue within set financial constraints. Personalized treatment assignment can be used to satisfy such constraints. This paper introduces a novel uplift modeling technique, relying on the Knapsack Problem formulation, that dynamically optimizes the incremental treatment outcome subject to the required Return on Investment (ROI) constraints. The technique leverages Retrospective Estimation, a modeling approach that relies solely on data from positive outcome examples. The method also addresses training data bias, long term effects, and seasonality challenges via online-dynamic calibration. This approach was tested via offline experiments and online randomized controlled trials at Booking .com - a leading OTP with millions of customers worldwide, resulting in a significant increase in the target outcome while staying within the required financial constraints and outperforming other approaches.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源