论文标题
DER系统的概率弹性 - 一种模拟辅助优化方法
Probabilistic Resilience of DER systems -- A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach
论文作者
论文摘要
随着主要电网中断的频率的增加，能源系统的弹性变得越来越重要。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种方法，以优化幕后分布式能源资源系统，以在预定的公用事业中维持站点的关键负载。借助固定的系统设计，我们提出了一种停电模拟方法，以估算DER系统在固定中断期之外的负载的弹性潜力 - 一年一年的弹性性能分析。我们采用统计分析来评估系统的弹性性能，以每小时，每月和每年的较大参数问题空间进行更广泛的参数问题空间。我们提出了一项案例研究，以证明预定的停电期对系统的弹性性能的影响。该案例研究表明，当为工作日建模而不是周末进行案例研究的周末时，在特定持续时间中随机停机的可能性从20％变为95％。
Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined utility outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We present a case study to demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance of the system. The case study shows that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20 percent to 95 percent when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the case study building.
