论文标题
自然灾害对消费者行为的影响：秘鲁2017年厄尔尼诺现象的案例
Impact of natural disasters on consumer behavior: case of the 2017 El Nino phenomenon in Peru
论文作者
论文摘要
埃尔尼诺（El Nino）是一个极端的天气事件，其特色是东部赤道太平洋中的地表水的异常变暖。这种现象的特征是大雨和洪水对受影响地区的经济活动产生负面影响。了解这种现象如何影响不同粒度水平的消费行为，对于推荐策略使情况正常化至关重要。以此目的，我们对涉及信用卡和借记卡的银行交易相关的数据进行了多尺度分析。我们的发现可以概括为两个主要结果：粗粒分析揭示了厄尔尼诺现象的存在以及在给定领域中的恢复时间，而细粒度的分析表明，由于气候事件，个人的购买模式和商人相关性发生了变化。结果还表明，由于随着时间的推移建立的经济结构，社会成功地经受了自然灾害。在这项研究中，我们提出了一种新方法，该方法可能对更好地表征未来的极端事件有用。
El Nino is an extreme weather event featuring unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is characterized by heavy rains and floods that negatively affect the economic activities of the impacted areas. Understanding how this phenomenon influences consumption behavior at different granularity levels is essential for recommending strategies to normalize the situation. With this aim, we performed a multi-scale analysis of data associated with bank transactions involving credit and debit cards. Our findings can be summarized into two main results: Coarse-grained analysis reveals the presence of the El Niño phenomenon and the recovery time in a given territory, while fine-grained analysis demonstrates a change in individuals' purchasing patterns and in merchant relevance as a consequence of the climatic event. The results also indicate that society successfully withstood the natural disaster owing to the economic structure built over time. In this study, we present a new method that may be useful for better characterizing future extreme events.
