论文标题
通过混合机械统计方法估算古巴的无证件Covid-19感染
Estimating undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba by means of a hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach
论文作者
论文摘要
我们适应了参考文献的混合机械统计方法。 [1]估计古巴无证件的Covid-19感染总数。假设检测过程与Bernoulli试验相匹配，则该方案基于感染人群的SIR样模型参数的最大似然估计。我们的估计表明，（a）60％的感染是未记录的，（b）数据峰值在报告提出的数据峰值的峰值，以及（c）在80个流行病日后繁殖数量迅速消失。
We adapt the hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach of Ref. [1] to estimate the total number of undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba. This scheme is based on the maximum likelihood estimation of a SIR-like model parameters for the infected population, assuming that the detection process matches a Bernoulli trial. Our estimations show that (a) 60% of the infections were undocumented, (b) the real epidemics behind the data peaked ten days before the reports suggested, and (c) the reproduction number swiftly vanishes after 80 epidemic days.
