论文标题
游戏理论上的高度期望对于离散时间有限状态不确定过程
Game-Theoretic Upper Expectations for Discrete-Time Finite-State Uncertain Processes
论文作者
论文摘要
游戏理论上的期望是联合(全球)概率模型,它们在数学上描述了超级明星的不确定过程的行为;与可用的投注策略相对应的资本流程。与(更常见的)测量理论期望功能相比,它们不受限制性假设的限制,例如可测量性或精确度,而是成功地保存甚至概括了许多基本属性。我们专注于当地状态空间有限的离散时间环境,在这种特定情况下,基于Shafer和Vovk的现有工作;游戏理论上期望框架的主要开发商。在第一部分中,我们研究了Shafer和Vovk对当地高期望的表征,并展示了它与Walley的连贯性行为概念有何关系。第二部分是对游戏理论上的期望的研究,在更全球的层面上,其中有几个替代定义以及广泛的属性得出的范围,例如迭代的期望定律,与本地模型,连贯性能的兼容性,...我们的主要贡献涉及这些操作员的连续性行为。我们证明了关于非临界功能的非进攻序列所谓的低切割和连续性的连续性。此外,我们表明,游戏理论上的期望是由其在限制界限以下的界限范围内的值所取决于的,并且还表明,对于任何这样的限制,可以以这种特定序列相对于游戏理论上的高期期望持续构建限制顺序。
Game-theoretic upper expectations are joint (global) probability models that mathematically describe the behaviour of uncertain processes in terms of supermartingales; capital processes corresponding to available betting strategies. Compared to (the more common) measure-theoretic expectation functionals, they are not bounded to restrictive assumptions such as measurability or precision, yet succeed in preserving, or even generalising many of their fundamental properties. We focus on a discrete-time setting where local state spaces are finite and, in this specific context, build on the existing work of Shafer and Vovk; the main developers of the framework of game-theoretic upper expectations. In a first part, we study Shafer and Vovk's characterisation of a local upper expectation and show how it is related to Walley's behavioural notion of coherence. The second part consists in a study of game-theoretic upper expectations on a more global level, where several alternative definitions, as well as a broad range of properties are derived, e.g. the law of iterated upper expectations, compatibility with local models, coherence properties,... Our main contribution, however, concerns the continuity behaviour of these operators. We prove continuity with respect to non-increasing sequences of so-called lower cuts and continuity with respect to non-increasing sequences of finitary functions. We moreover show that the game-theoretic upper expectation is uniquely determined by its values on the domain of bounded below limits of finitary functions, and additionally show that, for any such limit, the limiting sequence can be constructed in such a way that the game-theoretic upper expectation is continuous with respect to this particular sequence.