论文标题

使用基于气层成像观测值的集合建模对CME到达预测的评估

Evaluation of CME Arrival Prediction Using Ensemble Modeling Based on Heliospheric Imaging Observations

论文作者

Amerstorfer, Tanja, Hinterreiter, Jürgen, Reiss, Martin A., Möstl, Christian, Davies, Jackie A., Bailey, Rachel L., Weiss, Andreas J., Dumbović, Mateja, Bauer, Maike, Amerstorfer, Ute V., Harrison, Richard A.

论文摘要

在这项研究中,我们评估了冠状质量喷射(CME)到达预测工具,该工具利用了立体声的Heliospheric Imager(HI)进行的广角观察结果。这些成像器的不可分割的优势是可以观察到CME从近距离向1 au及以后的CME的演变和传播。我们认为,通过利用这一能力,而不是仅依靠可可菌观察,就可以改善当今的CME到达时间预测。基于HI观测值的椭圆演化模型(Evilohi)假设黄道平面内的CME额形形状是椭圆形,并且允许CME适应环境太阳风速,即基于阻力。 leverohi用于通过在给定边界条件中改变CME正面形状来执行集合模拟,而CME正面形状与HI的观察结果一致。在这项工作中,我们通过对15个定义明确的隔离CME进行后广播来评估模型的不同设置,这在2008年底到2011年初之间发生在L4/5接近L4/5时。通过这种方式,我们找到了平均的绝对错误,即在$ 6.2 \ pm7.9 $ h和9.9 $ h和9.9 \ pm13 $ pm13 $ h dependect the Models up dective in Decound in Decound the Models up teplend in Decound in Decound in Decound in Decound in Decound in Decound in Decound in Decound。指定了埃弗利(Evilohi)使用其位于L5或L1的未来太空天气任务的数据。它也可以与接近实时的立体声 - A HI信标数据一起使用,以在下一个$ \ sim7 $年度观察Sun-Earth空间时提供CME到达预测。

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide-angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse, and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed, i.e. it is drag-based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different set-ups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well-defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between $6.2\pm7.9$ h and $9.9\pm13$ h depending on the model set-up used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near real-time STEREO-A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next $\sim7$ years when STEREO-A is observing the Sun-Earth space.

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