论文标题
COVID-19-19
A parsimonious description and cross-country analysis of COVID-19 epidemic curve
论文作者
论文摘要
在一个给定的国家中，covid-19的第一波流行病的累积死亡人数遵循sigmoid曲线随时间的函数。在大多数情况下，Gompertz函数很好地描述了曲线，该曲线的特征是两个基本参数，初始生长速率和衰减速率作为第一个流行波波消退。这些参数取决于社会经济因素和阻止流行病的对策。 Gompertz模型意味着总死亡人数呈指数依赖，因此非常敏感地取决于这些速率之间的比率。在此框架中对瑞典和挪威的第一个流行浪潮以及许多其他国家的流行病曲线截然不同，讨论了它们在计划缓解策略的有用性。
In a given country, the cumulative death toll of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic follows a sigmoid curve as a function of time. In most cases, the curve is well described by the Gompertz function, which is characterized by two essential parameters, the initial growth rate and the decay rate as the first epidemic wave subsides. These parameters are determined by socioeconomic factors and the countermeasures to halt the epidemic. The Gompertz model implies that the total death toll depends exponentially, and hence very sensitively, on the ratio between these rates. The remarkably different epidemic curves for the first epidemic wave in Sweden and Norway and many other countries are classified and discussed in this framework, and their usefulness for the planning of mitigation strategies is discussed.
