论文标题
COVID-19的成核和生长模型在日本流行病
A nucleation and growth model for COVID-19 epidemic in Japan
论文作者
论文摘要
通过动态相变的基本方程，对日本和东京的Covid-19流行病进行了分析。结果，发现该流行病与随机成核和线性生长模型非常吻合，这表明2020年3月13日至2020年5月22日之间的流行仅由三个恒定参数限制：初始易感，域的生长速率和成核衰减常数。该模型提供了该流行病的良好预测指标，因为它由一个方程组成，初始特定图是线性的。
COVID-19 epidemics in Japan and Tokyo were analyzed by a fundamental equation of the dynamic phase transition. As a result, the epidemic was found to be in good agreement with the random nucleation and linear growth model suggesting that the epidemic between March 13, 2020 and May 22, 2020 was simply rate-limited by the three constant-parameters: the initial susceptible, domain growth rate, and nucleation decay constant. This model provides a good predictor of the epidemic because it consists of one equation and the initial specific plot is linear.
