论文标题
第二波Covid-19欧洲大流行：一本时间剧本
Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: A Temporal Playbook
论文作者
论文摘要
第二波大流行构成了对社会的迫在眉睫的威胁，在人类的生命和毁灭性的经济影响方面可能造成巨大损失。我们采用流行性的重态化组方法来进行大流行，以及COVID-19的第一波数据，以有效地模拟疾病传播的动态和在不同的欧洲国家中传播的动态。该框架使我们不仅对欧洲边境控制效果进行建模，还可以建模社会疏远对每个国家的影响。我们对欧洲以及与世界其他地区的人类互动的不同水平进行平均进行统计分析。我们的结果整齐地总结为一个动画，报道了欧洲互联19大流行的第一波和第二波的时间演变。我们关于第二波大流行的时间剧本可以由政府，金融市场，行业和个人公民使用，以有效地时间，准备和实施本地和全球措施。
A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the world. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.
