论文标题

订购和不平等的风险聚集

Ordering and Inequalities for Mixtures on Risk Aggregation

论文作者

Chen, Yuyu, Liu, Peng, Liu, Yang, Wang, Ruodu

论文摘要

代表因未知依赖性而导致的模型不确定性的聚合集是研究鲁棒风险聚集的重要对象。在本文中,我们调查了两个聚合集之间的有序关系,这些聚合集与边缘组合相关的两个简单操作相关:分布混合物和分位数混合物。从直观上讲,这些操作是通过使它们相似的``匀浆''边际分布。作为我们结果的总体结论,更多的``同质''边际导致了一个更大的聚合集,因此更严重的模型不确定性,尽管分数混合物的情况比分配混合物更为复杂。我们开始研究风险汇总风险度量最严重的价值的不平等,这代表了监管资本的保守计算。除其他结果外,我们在分位数混合物下获得了与单调密度边际分布的VAR有关的订单关系。给出了数值结果,以可视化理论结果并进一步激发一些猜想。最后,我们在依赖性不确定性下为投资组合多元化提供了应用,并在多个假设检验中合并了p值,并讨论了我们的结果与联合混合性的联系。

Aggregation sets, which represent model uncertainty due to unknown dependence, are an important object in the study of robust risk aggregation. In this paper, we investigate ordering relations between two aggregation sets for which the sets of marginals are related by two simple operations: distribution mixtures and quantile mixtures. Intuitively, these operations ``homogenize" marginal distributions by making them similar. As a general conclusion from our results, more ``homogeneous" marginals lead to a larger aggregation set, and thus more severe model uncertainty, although the situation for quantile mixtures is much more complicated than that for distribution mixtures. We proceed to study inequalities on the worst-case values of risk measures in risk aggregation, which represent conservative calculation of regulatory capital. Among other results, we obtain an order relation on VaR under quantile mixture for marginal distributions with monotone densities. Numerical results are presented to visualize the theoretical results and further inspire some conjectures. Finally, we provide applications on portfolio diversification under dependence uncertainty and merging p-values in multiple hypothesis testing, and discuss the connection of our results to joint mixability.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源