论文标题
因果学习中的周期
Cycles in Causal Learning
论文作者
论文摘要
在因果学习环境中,我们希望学习变量之间的因果关系,以便我们可以正确推断干预的效果。虽然环状结构和无环结构之间的差异可能只是一个边缘,但在干预下,环状因果结构在质上具有不同的行为:当干预措施的下游效应传播回源变量时,循环会导致反馈回路。我们介绍了三个有关具有自指成分的概率分布的理论观察,即可以用循环以图形表示的分布。首先,我们证明,两个变量中的自指分布实际上是独立的。其次,我们证明N变量中的自指分布的共同信息为零。最后,我们证明,在周期中分解的自指分布,也将周期分解。这些结果表明,即使观察数据表明变量之间的独立性,环状因果依赖性也可能存在。基于估计相互信息或基于独立因果机制的启发式方法的方法可能无法学习周期性的休闲结构。我们鼓励未来的因果学习工作,以仔细考虑周期。
In the causal learning setting, we wish to learn cause-and-effect relationships between variables such that we can correctly infer the effect of an intervention. While the difference between a cyclic structure and an acyclic structure may be just a single edge, cyclic causal structures have qualitatively different behavior under intervention: cycles cause feedback loops when the downstream effect of an intervention propagates back to the source variable. We present three theoretical observations about probability distributions with self-referential factorizations, i.e. distributions that could be graphically represented with a cycle. First, we prove that self-referential distributions in two variables are, in fact, independent. Second, we prove that self-referential distributions in N variables have zero mutual information. Lastly, we prove that self-referential distributions that factorize in a cycle, also factorize as though the cycle were reversed. These results suggest that cyclic causal dependence may exist even where observational data suggest independence among variables. Methods based on estimating mutual information, or heuristics based on independent causal mechanisms, are likely to fail to learn cyclic casual structures. We encourage future work in causal learning that carefully considers cycles.