论文标题
电力系统扩展模型的敏感性
The Sensitivity of Power System Expansion Models
论文作者
论文摘要
电力系统扩展模型是一种广泛用于规划PowerSystems的工具,尤其是考虑到大型更新库的集成。这些模型的骨干是一个优化问题,取决于许多经济和技术参数。尽管eSeparameter含有明显的不确定性,但几乎没有研究功率系统对这些不确定性的敏感性。在这项工作中,我们介绍了一种新颖的方法,将功率系统模型的敏感性量化为基于测量因发电能力而产生的跨度成本的不同模型参数。该方法的价值通过三个突出的测试案例证明:CabalCost,不同的天气周期以及不同的空间和时间分辨率的定义。我们发现该模型对时间分辨率最敏感。坦率地说,我们解释了为什么空间分辨率很重要,为什么应仔细选择潜在的天气数据。
Power system expansion models are a widely used tool for planning powersystems, especially considering the integration of large shares of renewableresources. The backbone of these models is an optimization problem, whichdepends on a number of economic and technical parameters. Although theseparameters contain significant uncertainties, the sensitivity of power systemmodels to these uncertainties is barely investigated. In this work, we introduce a novel method to quantify the sensitivity ofpower system models to different model parameters based on measuring theadditional cost arising from misallocating generation capacities. The value ofthis method is proven by three prominent test cases: the definition of capitalcost, different weather periods and different spatial and temporal resolutions.We find that the model is most sensitive to the temporal resolution. Fur-thermore, we explain why the spatial resolution is of minor importance andwhy the underlying weather data should be chosen carefully.