论文标题
羟基氯喹作为COVID-19的预防功效
Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine as Prophylaxis for Covid-19
论文作者
论文摘要
Cohen [2]考虑了Boulware等[1]实验设计的局限性。它们不接受更正，但报告了读者的考虑。但是，他们根据Fisher的假设检验对发病率进行了分析，同时他们发布了未分析的详细时间依赖数据，而无视重要信息。在这里，我们通过此时间进行分析，该数据采用了简单的回归分析。 我们得出结论他们的随机，双盲，安慰剂对照试验提供了统计证据，统计证据在99％的置信度下，即199％的羟基氯喹患者的治疗可有效减少暴露于病毒后或右边使用的症状的出现。在暴露于病毒后的0到2天内，症状结局的相对减少为0天后的相对减少为72％，1天后48.9％，2天后29.3％。暴露后3天，估计的相对降低为15.7％，但在统计学上没有结论性的结果，在暴露后4天或更多天，没有统计证据表明羟基氯喹有效减少症状的出现。 我们的结果表明，在感染和治疗开始之间经过的时间对于羟基氯喹作为COVID-19的治疗的功效至关重要。
Limitations in the design of the experiment of Boulware et al[1] are considered in Cohen[2]. They are not subject to correction but they are reported for readers' consideration. However, they made an analysis for the incidence based on Fisher's hypothesis test for means while they published detailed time dependent data which were not analyzed, disregarding an important information. Here we make the analyses with this time dependent data adopting a simple regression analysis. We conclude their randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial presents statistical evidence, at 99% confidence level, that the treatment of Covid-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine is effective in reducing the appearance of symptoms if used before or right after exposure to the virus. For 0 to 2 days after exposure to virus, the estimated relative reduction in symptomatic outcomes is 72% after 0 days, 48.9% after 1 day and 29.3% after 2 days. For 3 days after exposure, the estimated relative reduction is 15.7% but results are not statistically conclusive and for 4 or more days after exposure there is no statistical evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective in reducing the appearance of symptoms. Our results show that the time elapsed between infection and the beginning of treatment is crucial for the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment to Covid-19.
