论文标题
偶然性思维的失败
Failures of Contingent Thinking
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提供了一个理论框架，以分析误解或误解她面临的真正决策问题的代理商。我们表明，在实验设置中观察到的广泛行为表现为失败，换句话说，可以正确说明各种收益相关的意外事件之间的逻辑关系。我们提出了对感知含义的行为定义，从而提供了一种启发技术，并表明代理人对含义的描述确定了一个主观状态空间，其行为是基于其行为的基础。通过分析这一状态空间，我们表征了推动经验现象的逻辑复杂性的不同基准。我们解散了静态和动态理性的。因此，我们的框架提供了评估代理人的偶然性思维水平的方法，也提供了在完全理性的情况下确定她的信念的策略。
In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to analyze an agent who misinterprets or misperceives the true decision problem she faces. We show that a wide range of behavior observed in experimental settings manifest as failures to perceive implications, in other words, to properly account for the logical relationships between various payoff relevant contingencies. We present a behavioral definition of perceived implication, thereby providing an elicitation technique, and show that an agent's account of implication identifies a subjective state-space that underlies her behavior. By analyzing this state-space, we characterize distinct benchmarks of logical sophistication that drive empirical phenomena. We disentangle static and dynamic rationality. Thus, our framework delivers both a methodology for assessing an agent's level of contingent thinking and a strategy for identifying her beliefs in the absence full rationality.
