论文标题

瞬时动力学的预防流体扩散

Prophylaxis of Epidemic Spreading with Transient Dynamics

论文作者

Bouveret, Geraldine, Mandel, Antoine

论文摘要

我们从规范的角度研究了网络中流行病扩散的遏制。我们考虑了一种易感/感染的模型,在该模型中,代理商可以投资以减少网络链接的传染性。在这种情况下,我们研究社会效率,个人行为和网络结构之间的关系。首先,我们对无政府状态的价格表现出上限,并证明低效率水平可以随着代理的数量线性扩展。其次,我们证明,统一减少相互作用的政策满足了各种网络中的一些最佳条件。在没有中央权威可以执行此类严格政策的情况下,我们认为是第二好的政策,通过允许代理商补贴全球范围内的传染性减少,而不是本地网络的投资,从本地游戏转向全球游戏。然后,我们描述了通过自动化的价格概念来打开此类政策范围的范围,从而衡量了全球和当地平衡之间的社会福利之间的比率。总体而言,我们的结果表明,面对流行病的传播,个人行为效率极高,但该政策可以利用网络结构来设计有效的遏制政策。

We investigate the containment of epidemic spreading in networks from a normative point of view. We consider a susceptible/infected model in which agents can invest in order to reduce the contagiousness of network links. In this setting, we study the relationships between social efficiency, individual behaviours and network structure. First, we exhibit an upper bound on the Price of Anarchy and prove that the level of inefficiency can scale up to linearly with the number of agents. Second, we prove that policies of uniform reduction of interactions satisfy some optimality conditions in a vast range of networks. In setting where no central authority can enforce such stringent policies, we consider as a type of second-best policy the shift from a local to a global game by allowing agents to subsidise investments in contagiousness reduction in the global rather than in the local network. We then characterise the scope for Pareto improvement opened by such policies through a notion of Price of Autarky, measuring the ratio between social welfare at a global and a local equilibrium. Overall, our results show that individual behaviours can be extremely inefficient in the face of epidemic propagation but that policy can take advantage of the network structure to design efficient containment policies.

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