论文标题
建模西澳大利亚州的远程流行传播及其对大流行反应的影响
Modelling remote epidemic transmission in Western Australia and implications for pandemic response
论文作者
论文摘要
我们在西澳大利亚州的偏远社区开发了基于代理的疾病传播模型。尽管极端隔离，但我们表明，在许多小而孤立的社区中，人们的行动具有导致传播迅速传播的作用。偏远社区以及地区和城市中心之间的重大运动使感染能够迅速传播到这些偏远社区。我们的结论是基于西澳大利亚州偏远社区的两个特征：（1）这些社区中人们的流动性高，以及（2）从很小的社区到主要人口中心的旅行者比例较高。在珀斯州首都启动的感染模式中，这些偏远社区集体易受伤害。我们的模型和分析并不能说明由于已经存在的条件而导致的影响可能会增强，这种额外的假设只会使该模型的预测更加可怕。我们主张对运动的严格监控和控制，以防止对西澳大利亚州土著人口的重大影响。
We develop an agent-based model of disease transmission in remote communities in Western Australia. Despite extreme isolation, we show that the movement of people amongst a large number of small but isolated communities has the effect of causing transmission to spread quickly. Significant movement between remote communities, and regional and urban centres allows for infection to quickly spread to and then among these remote communities. Our conclusions are based on two characteristic features of remote communities in Western Australia: (1) high mobility of people amongst these communities, and (2) relatively high proportion of travellers from very small communities to major population centres. In models of infection initiated in the state capital, Perth, these remote communities are collectively and uniquely vulnerable. Our model and analysis does not account for possibly heightened impact due to preexisting conditions, such additional assumptions would only make the projections of this model more dire. We advocate stringent monitoring and control of movement to prevent significant impact on the indigenous population of Western Australia.
