论文标题
COVID-19感染率校正
COVID-19 infectivity profile correction
论文作者
论文摘要
He等人于2020年4月在自然医学上发表的COVID-19中的纸张脱落和可传播性的纸张时间动态归因于2020年4月在自然医学上发表。但是，本文中的分析包含一个错误，因此发表的感染率是不正确的，并且结论不正确。在本文档中，我们讨论了错误并计算正确的感染性概况。我们还可以在此配置文件上建立置信区间，量化已发布和校正配置文件之间的差异，并在拟合串行间隔数据时讨论标准化问题。这种感染性概况在政策和决策中起着核心作用，因此，至关重要的是，要纠正该问题，以防止该错误传播到进一步的研究和政策中。我们希望这种预印本能够吸引所有使用不正确感染性概况来告知其工作的研究人员和政策制定者。
The infectivity profile of an individual with COVID-19 is attributed to the paper Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 by He et al., published in Nature Medicine in April 2020. However, the analysis within this paper contains a mistake such that the published infectivity profile is incorrect and the conclusion that infectiousness begins 2.3 days before symptom onset is no longer supported. In this document we discuss the error and compute the correct infectivity profile. We also establish confidence intervals on this profile, quantify the difference between the published and the corrected profiles, and discuss an issue of normalisation when fitting serial interval data. This infectivity profile plays a central role in policy and decision making, thus it is crucial that this issue is corrected with the utmost urgency to prevent the propagation of this error into further studies and policies. We hope that this preprint will reach all researchers and policy makers who are using the incorrect infectivity profile to inform their work.
