论文标题
在打板球的顺序中识别跑步得分优势的一种概率方法
A Probabilistic Approach to Identifying Run Scoring Advantage in the Order of Playing Cricket
论文作者
论文摘要
在板球比赛中，抛弃的结果被认为是比赛结果的决定因素之一。赢得折扣后首先击球的决定通常是为了充分利用优越的音高条件，并为对手设定了一个大目标。但是，由于许多因素，包括俯仰条件恶化和追逐高目标得分的压力过大，对手可能无法在第二局中表现出自然的击球性能。击球的优势首先在文献和专家意见中得到了强调，但是，击球和保龄球命令对匹配结果的影响还不够好，无法为任何潜在偏见提供解决方案。这项研究提出了一个基于概率理论的模型，以研究不同匹配结果下团队的场地特异性评分和追逐特征。在第一局中获胜的球队蝙蝠比赛时，总共分析了在十个流行场地举行的1017场一日国际比赛，以表现出很高的得分优势和可能性。结果表明，如果他们在第二局比赛中击球，那么同样的“蝙蝠首先”获胜球队就不太可能得分或追逐得分。因此，硬币折腾的决定可能比一个团队相比另一个团队。提出了一个贝叶斯模型来修改每个场地的目标分数，以使获胜和得分的可能性是平等的，无论抛弃决策如何。数据和源代码已公开共享，用于未来的研究，以通过消除击球顺序在Run评分中的优势来创造竞争性匹配结果。
In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big target for the opponent. However, the opponent may fail to show their natural batting performance in the second innings due to a number of factors, including deteriorated pitch conditions and excessive pressure of chasing a high target score. The advantage of batting first has been highlighted in the literature and expert opinions, however, the effect of batting and bowling order on match outcome has not been investigated well enough to recommend a solution to any potential bias. This study proposes a probability theory-based model to study venue-specific scoring and chasing characteristics of teams under different match outcomes. A total of 1117 one-day international matches held in ten popular venues are analyzed to show substantially high scoring advantage and likelihood when the winning team bat in the first innings. Results suggest that the same 'bat-first' winning team is very unlikely to score or chase such a high score if they were to bat in the second innings. Therefore, the coin toss decision may favor one team over the other. A Bayesian model is proposed to revise the target score for each venue such that the winning and scoring likelihood is equal regardless of the toss decision. The data and source codes have been shared publicly for future research in creating competitive match outcomes by eliminating the advantage of batting order in run scoring.
