论文标题
时尚零售基于产品时代的需求预测模型
Product age based demand forecast model for fashion retail
论文作者
论文摘要
时装零售商需要在下个赛季(即将提前一年)进行准确的需求预测,以进行需求管理和供应链计划目的。准确的预测对于确保零售商的盈利能力并减少因处置未售出的库存而造成的环境损失很重要。这是具有挑战性的,因为大多数产品在一个赛季中都是新的,并且寿命较短,销售量巨大和长时间的时间。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于新型产品年龄的预测模型,其中产品年龄是指自发布以来的几周数,并表明它的表现优于现有模型。我们通过现实世界中的用例展示了该方法的出色表现,该跨国时尚零售商拥有300多家商店,35K商品和大约40个类别。这项工作的主要贡献包括针对产品属性值的独特而重要的功能工程,提前6-12个月的准确需求预测以及推荐下一季的产品发布时间的方法。我们使用时尚分类优化模型来生产下一个赛季中要在商店中列出的物品清单和数量,以最大程度地收入并满足业务限制。与零售商的计划相比,我们从框架中发现了41%的收入提升。我们还将我们的预测结果与当前方法进行了比较,并表明它的表现优于现有模型。我们的框架可提供更好的订购,库存计划,分类计划以及零售商供应链利润的总体利润增加。
Fashion retailers require accurate demand forecasts for the next season, almost a year in advance, for demand management and supply chain planning purposes. Accurate forecasts are important to ensure retailers' profitability and to reduce environmental damage caused by disposal of unsold inventory. It is challenging because most products are new in a season and have short life cycles, huge sales variations and long lead-times. In this paper, we present a novel product age based forecast model, where product age refers to the number of weeks since its launch, and show that it outperforms existing models. We demonstrate the robust performance of the approach through real world use case of a multinational fashion retailer having over 300 stores, 35k items and around 40 categories. The main contributions of this work include unique and significant feature engineering for product attribute values, accurate demand forecast 6-12 months in advance and extending our approach to recommend product launch time for the next season. We use our fashion assortment optimization model to produce list and quantity of items to be listed in a store for the next season that maximizes total revenue and satisfies business constraints. We found a revenue uplift of 41% from our framework in comparison to the retailer's plan. We also compare our forecast results with the current methods and show that it outperforms existing models. Our framework leads to better ordering, inventory planning, assortment planning and overall increase in profit for the retailer's supply chain.