论文标题

阿尔卑斯山:建模时间序列的统一框架变化

ALPS: A Unified Framework for Modeling Time Series of Land Ice Changes

论文作者

Shekhar, Prashant, Csatho, Beata, Schenk, Tony, Roberts, Carolyn, Patra, Abani

论文摘要

建模时间序列是Cryopheric科学的研究重点,因为感兴趣的事件的复杂性和多尺度性质。从不同级别的准确性的不同传感器测量的高度不均匀的采样,对于冰盖高程的典型测量,使问题更具挑战性。在本文中,我们提出了一个基于样条的近似框架(阿尔卑斯山 - 局部惩罚键近似),用于建模土地冰的变化时间序列。 B-Spline基函数的局部支持使得鲁棒性可以鲁棒性,这比其他全局和分段本地模型有了很大的改进。凭借基于离散坐标分化的惩罚和两级离群值检测的功能,阿尔卑斯山进一步保证了近似值的稳定性和质量。阿尔卑斯山将严格的模型不确定性估计与所有近似值结合在一起。如示例所示,阿尔卑斯山在各种数据集中表现良好,包括冰盖厚度,高程,速度和末端位置的时间序列。时间序列及其导数的可靠估计有助于新的应用,例如通过融合了稀疏采样的冰盖厚度变化的时间序列,对高分辨率高程变化记录的重建,以及模型的FIRN厚度变化,以及对不同出口冰川观测之间的关系分析,以获得新的洞察力和投入。

Modeling time series is a research focus in cryospheric sciences because of the complexity and multiscale nature of events of interest. Highly non-uniform sampling of measurements from different sensors with different levels of accuracy, as is typical for measurements of ice sheet elevations, makes the problem even more challenging. In this paper, we propose a spline-based approximation framework (ALPS - Approximation by Localized Penalized Splines) for modeling time series of land ice changes. The localized support of the B-spline basis functions enable robustness to non-uniform sampling, a considerable improvement over other global and piecewise local models. With features like, discrete-coordinate-difference-based penalization and two-level outlier detection, ALPS further guarantees the stability and quality of approximations. ALPS incorporates rigorous model uncertainty estimates with all approximations. As demonstrated by examples, ALPS performs well for a variety of data sets, including time series of ice sheet thickness, elevation, velocity, and terminus locations. The robust estimation of time series and their derivatives facilitates new applications, such as the reconstruction of high-resolution elevation change records by fusing sparsely sampled time series of ice sheet thickness changes with modeled firn thickness changes, and the analysis of the relationship between different outlet glacier observations to gain new insight into processes and forcing.

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