论文标题

COVID后19世界航空公司网络的方案

Scenarios for a post-COVID-19 world airline network

论文作者

Ye, Jiachen, Ji, Peng, Barthelemy, Marc

论文摘要

该航空业受到19日危机的严重打击,平均需求减少约64美元\%$(IATA,2020年4月),这已经引发了世界各地的几家破产公司。尽管世界航空网络(WAN)的鲁棒性主要是作为同质网络研究的,但我们引入了一种新工具,用于分析公司失败的影响:“航空公司公司网络”,如果他们共享至少一个路线领域,则可以连接两个航空公司。使用此工具,我们观察到与他人建立良好联系的公司的失败对WAN的连通性的影响最大。然后,我们探讨了全球需求减少的影响如何不同,如果它保持较低并且没有恢复到危机前的水平,则对不同情况的分析进行分析。使用官方航空指南(OAG)的流量数据以及对客户选择策略的简单假设,我们发现当地有效需求可能远低于平均水平,尤其是对于不垄断并与大公司共享其细分市场的公司。即使平均需求返回总容量的60 \%$,我们发现,$ 46 \%$ $ $ 59 \%的公司之间的$ 59 \%$可能会降低其流量的50美元以上,这取决于推动客户的航空公司选择的竞争优势类型。这些结果强调了WAN的复杂竞争结构如何在面对如此巨大的危机时削弱其鲁棒性。

The airline industry was severely hit by the COVID-19 crisis with an average demand decrease of about $64\%$ (IATA, April 2020) which triggered already several bankruptcies of airline companies all over the world. While the robustness of the world airline network (WAN) was mostly studied as an homogeneous network, we introduce a new tool for analyzing the impact of a company failure: the `airline company network' where two airlines are connected if they share at least one route segment. Using this tool, we observe that the failure of companies well connected with others has the largest impact on the connectivity of the WAN. We then explore how the global demand reduction affects airlines differently, and provide an analysis of different scenarios if its stays low and does not come back to its pre-crisis level. Using traffic data from the Official Aviation Guide (OAG) and simple assumptions about customer's airline choice strategies, we find that the local effective demand can be much lower than the average one, especially for companies that are not monopolistic and share their segments with larger companies. Even if the average demand comes back to $60\%$ of the total capacity, we find that between $46\%$ and $59\%$ of the companies could experience a reduction of more than $50\%$ of their traffic, depending on the type of competitive advantage that drives customer's airline choice. These results highlight how the complex competitive structure of the WAN weakens its robustness when facing such a large crisis.

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