论文标题
有条件的可分离效果
Conditional separable effects
论文作者
论文摘要
研究人员通常对仅根据治疗后事件状态有条件定义的结果感兴趣。例如,在研究不同癌症治疗对随访结束时生活质量的影响时,在研究期间死亡的个体的生活质量是不确定的。在这些环境中,即使在随机实验中,在处理后变量上有条件的结果的天真对比也不是平均因果效应。因此,通常会主张那些将在死亡环境截断中始终存在的待遇,例如,在处理后变量中具有相同价值的人的主要层面的影响,通常是为了因果推断而提倡的。尽管这种主要层面效应是一个明确定义的因果对比,但通常很难证明它与科学家,患者或政策制定者相关,并且在不依赖不可分割的假设的情况下无法确定它。在这里,我们制定了替代性估计值,即条件可分离效应,这些效应在假设下具有自然因果解释,可以在随机实验中伪造。我们提供识别结果并引入不同的估计器,包括从非参数影响函数得出的双重稳健估计器。作为例证,我们使用随机临床试验的数据估计了化学疗法对前列腺癌患者生活质量的条件可分离作用。
Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of follow-up, the quality of life of individuals who die during the study is undefined. In these settings, a naive contrast of outcomes conditional on the post-treatment variable is not an average causal effect, even in a randomized experiment. Therefore the effect in the principal stratum of those who would have the same value of the post-treatment variable regardless of treatment, such as the always survivors in a truncation by death setting, is often advocated for causal inference. While this principal stratum effect is a well defined causal contrast, it is often hard to justify that it is relevant to scientists, patients or policy makers, and it cannot be identified without relying on unfalsifiable assumptions. Here we formulate alternative estimands, the conditional separable effects, that have a natural causal interpretation under assumptions that can be falsified in a randomized experiment. We provide identification results and introduce different estimators, including a doubly robust estimator derived from the nonparametric influence function. As an illustration, we estimate a conditional separable effect of chemotherapies on quality of life in patients with prostate cancer, using data from a randomized clinical trial.