论文标题
高速公路交通流量预测的图形建模方法
Graph modelling approaches for motorway traffic flow prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
交通流量的预测,特别是在经历高度动态流动(例如高速公路)的领域,是交通管理中面临的主要问题。由于每分钟每分钟生成越来越多的数据集,因此在短期和长期预测的最新几年中,深度学习方法已被广泛使用。但是,尽管有效率,但这些模型仍需要提供大量的历史信息,并且需要大量时间和计算资源来培训,验证和测试。本文通过使用高速公路网络的图形结构(包括出口和条目),提出了两种新的时空方法,用于沿悉尼流行的高速公路进行准确的短期预测。这些方法基于基于接近度的方法,表示回溯和插值,该方法使用了沿高速公路沿线的每个目标计数站的最新和最接近的交通流量信息。结果表明,对于短期预测(未来不到10分钟),提出的基于图的方法优于最先进的深度学习模型,例如长期短期记忆,卷积神经元网络或混合模型。
Traffic flow prediction, particularly in areas that experience highly dynamic flows such as motorways, is a major issue faced in traffic management. Due to increasingly large volumes of data sets being generated every minute, deep learning methods have been used extensively in the latest years for both short and long term prediction. However, such models, despite their efficiency, need large amounts of historical information to be provided, and they take a considerable amount of time and computing resources to train, validate and test. This paper presents two new spatial-temporal approaches for building accurate short-term prediction along a popular motorway in Sydney, by making use of the graph structure of the motorway network (including exits and entries). The methods are built on proximity-based approaches, denoted backtracking and interpolation, which uses the most recent and closest traffic flow information for each of the target counting stations along the motorway. The results indicate that for short-term predictions (less than 10 minutes into the future), the proposed graph-based approaches outperform state-of-the-art deep learning models, such as long-term short memory, convolutional neuronal networks or hybrid models.