论文标题
森林砍伐和世界人口可持续性：定量分析
Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们对当前世界人口增长的可持续性相对于采用统计观点的平行森林砍伐过程进行了定量分析。我们考虑了一个基于由连续的时间随机步行驱动的随机增长过程的简化模型，该过程描绘了人类技术的技术演变，并结合确定性的人类相互作用的确定性概括性逻辑模型，我们评估了避免我们文明自我毁灭的可能性。根据当前的资源消耗率和技术率增长的最佳估计，我们的研究表明，我们的概率很低，在最乐观的估计中不到10％，可以在不面对灾难性崩溃的情况下生存。
In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.
