论文标题
Covid-19期间非洲的冲突：社会疏远，食物脆弱性和福利反应
Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: social distancing, food vulnerability and welfare response
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了社会疏远，粮食脆弱性，福利和劳动劳动对199政策的反应对骚乱，对平民的暴力和与食品有关的冲突的影响。我们的分析使用对24个非洲国家的地理参与数据，该数据每月在2015年1月至2020年5月初，在武装冲突地点和事件数据项目（ACLED）中报告的每月本地价格和实时冲突数据。锁定和最近的福利政策是根据COVID-19实施的，但在某些情况下也很可能响应正在进行中正在进行的冲突的情况下。为了减轻内生性的潜在风险，我们使用工具变量。我们利用了全球商品价格的外生性，以及三个变量，增加了covid-19的风险和效率，例如殖民遗产，男性死亡率归因于空气污染和成人糖尿病的患病率。我们发现自从封锁以来，经历暴动，对平民的暴力，与食物有关的冲突和食物抢劫的可能性有所增加。食物脆弱性一直是一个促成因素。当地价格指数上涨10％与针对平民的暴力行为增加了0.7个百分点。尽管如此，对于响应Covid-19的每项其他反贫困措施，对平民遭受暴力行为的可能性下降了约0.2个百分点。这些反贫困措施还减少了与这些冲突相关的死亡人数。总体而言，我们的发现表明，食品脆弱性增加了冲突风险，但也对国家在提供广泛的福利安全网中的重要性提供了乐观的看法。
We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with monthly local prices and real-time conflict data reported in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) from January 2015 until early May 2020. Lockdowns and recent welfare policies have been implemented in light of COVID-19, but in some contexts also likely in response to ongoing conflicts. To mitigate the potential risk of endogeneity, we use instrumental variables. We exploit the exogeneity of global commodity prices, and three variables that increase the risk of COVID-19 and efficiency in response such as countries colonial heritage, male mortality rate attributed to air pollution and prevalence of diabetes in adults. We find that the probability of experiencing riots, violence against civilians, food-related conflicts and food looting has increased since lockdowns. Food vulnerability has been a contributing factor. A 10% increase in the local price index is associated with an increase of 0.7 percentage points in violence against civilians. Nonetheless, for every additional anti-poverty measure implemented in response to COVID-19 the probability of experiencing violence against civilians, riots and food-related conflicts declines by approximately 0.2 percentage points. These anti-poverty measures also reduce the number of fatalities associated with these conflicts. Overall, our findings reveal that food vulnerability has increased conflict risks, but also offer an optimistic view of the importance of the state in providing an extensive welfare safety net.
