论文标题
锁定是否达到了他们的目的？
Did lockdowns serve their purpose?
论文作者
论文摘要
我们表明，一旦选择了时间的起源是封锁的开始，在不同国家，由于不同国家造成的死亡人数的动态在很大程度上是普遍的，并且死亡人数被锁定后的死亡总数重新降低，本身就是封锁开始时感染数量的代表。当总人口正常化时，这种曲线崩溃的说服力要少得多。瑞典以其无锁定的轻触方式是唯一偏离平均行为的唯一离群值。我们认为，这些无模型的发现为锁定在减轻病毒致死性方面的有效性提供了强有力的支持。
We show that the dynamics of the number of deaths due to Covid in different countries is to a large extent universal once the origin of time is chosen to be the start of the lockdown, and the number of death is rescaled by the total number of deaths after the lockdown, itself a proxy of the number of infections at the start of the lockdown. Such a curve collapse is much less convincing when normalizing by the total population. Sweden, with its no-lockdown, light-touch approach, is the only outlier that deviates considerably from the average behavior. We argue that these model-free findings provide strong support for the effectiveness of the lockdowns in mitigating the lethality of the virus.
