论文标题
有效的免疫力和第二波：动态因果建模研究
Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study
论文作者
论文摘要
This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic.这是一个至关重要的流行病学参数，既说明了放松锁定的后果，又表达了第二波感染的倾向。使用多个国家报告的病例和死亡的动态因果模型，我们评估了逐渐更长的免疫时期的证据模型。结果表明，大约三个月的有效人口免疫力，在大多数国家 /地区，大约六个月的第二波浪潮。这可能对跟踪和追踪以及制定疫苗接种计划以及其他治疗干预措施的机会窗口有影响。
This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.
