论文标题
对广义线性模型参数的假设 - lean推断
Assumption-lean inference for generalised linear model parameters
论文作者
论文摘要
参数索引通用线性模型的推断通常是基于模型正确且指定先验性的假设。这是不令人满意的,因为所选模型通常是数据自适应模型选择过程的结果,这可能会引起通常不承认的过剩不确定性。此外,所选模型中编码的假设很少代表一些先验已知的基础真理,这使得标准推断容易偏见,但也没有对数据中包含的信息进行纯粹的反映。受到所谓投影参数的无假设推断的发展的启发,我们在这里提出了新型的非参数定义的主要效果估计和效果修改估计值。当正确指定这些模型时,这些模型中的标准主要效果和效应修改参数在广义线性模型中,但其优势是,即使这些模型的影响,它们在两个变量之间或两个变量相互作用(在统计意义上)相互作用的程度(在统计意义上)的程度(即使这些模型都被误解了)。我们通过在非参数模型下得出其影响曲线并调用灵活的数据自适应(例如机器学习)程序,从而实现了这些估计的假设推断(以及基础回归参数)。
Inference for the parameters indexing generalised linear models is routinely based on the assumption that the model is correct and a priori specified. This is unsatisfactory because the chosen model is usually the result of a data-adaptive model selection process, which may induce excess uncertainty that is not usually acknowledged. Moreover, the assumptions encoded in the chosen model rarely represent some a priori known, ground truth, making standard inferences prone to bias, but also failing to give a pure reflection of the information that is contained in the data. Inspired by developments on assumption-free inference for so-called projection parameters, we here propose novel nonparametric definitions of main effect estimands and effect modification estimands. These reduce to standard main effect and effect modification parameters in generalised linear models when these models are correctly specified, but have the advantage that they continue to capture respectively the primary (conditional) association between two variables, or the degree to which two variables interact (in a statistical sense) in their effect on outcome, even when these models are misspecified. We achieve an assumption-lean inference for these estimands (and thus for the underlying regression parameters) by deriving their influence curve under the nonparametric model and invoking flexible data-adaptive (e.g., machine learning) procedures.