论文标题
NOTCASTING COVID-19统计报告报道了fildelay：瑞典的案例研究
Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported withdelay: a case-study of Sweden
论文作者
论文摘要
新的电晕病毒疾病（2019年Covid-2019）正在迅速传播到世界范围内。疾病事件趋势的及时统计数据的可用性是有效反应的关键。但是，由于报告的延迟，最近报告的人数经常低估感染总数，住院和死亡的总数，从而产生了下降趋势的幻想。在这里，我们描述了一种统计方法，用于预测使用历史报告延迟估算的真实日常数量及其不确定性。该方法考虑了观察到的滞后分布模式。它源自删除方法，这是生态学领域中良好的估计框架。
The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported numbers are frequently underestimating of the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the removal method, a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology.
