论文标题
是什么驱动通货膨胀以及如何驱动通货膨胀的：来自CAIC选择的添加混合模型的证据
What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了从1997年至2015年的122个国家 /地区使用37个回归剂的122个国家的小组来解释通货膨胀的力量。 98由经济理论动机的模型与梯度增强算法进行了比较，考虑了非线性和结构断裂。我们表明，典型的估计方法可能会导致政策结论，从而激发了我们在本文中提出的新方法的使用。增强算法优于基于理论的模型。我们确认能源价格很重要，但对通货膨胀真正重要的是它们与能源租金的非线性相互作用。人口发展也有所作为。全球化和技术，公共债务，中央银行独立性和政治特征的相关性不大。人均GDP比输出差距更有意义，信用增长超过M2增长。
We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks are considered. We show that the typical estimation methods are likely to lead to fallacious policy conclusions which motivates the use of a new approach that we propose in this paper. The boosting algorithm outperforms theory-based models. We confirm that energy prices are important but what really matters for inflation is their non-linear interplay with energy rents. Demographic developments also make a difference. Globalization and technology, public debt, central bank independence and political characteristics are less relevant. GDP per capita is more relevant than the output gap, credit growth more than M2 growth.
