论文标题
在不匹配的模型下,信息级联脆弱性的尖锐阈值
Sharp Thresholds of the Information Cascade Fragility Under a Mismatched Model
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了一个顺序决策模型,在该模型中,决策者(或者,参与者)根据自己的私人信息以及以前的决策者的行动来做出决策。这种决策过程通常会导致所谓的\ emph {信息级联}或\ emph {herding}现象。具体而言,级联反应在某些玩家放弃自己的私人信息并模仿早期玩家的行动似乎合理时就会发展。但是,风险是,如果最初的决定是错误的,那么整个级联将是错误的。但是,信息级联是脆弱的:存在\ emph {揭示}概率的顺序$ \ {p _ {p _ {\ ell} _ {\ ell \ geq1} $避免。研究信息级联的脆弱性的先前相关论文始终假定所有参与者的揭示概率是完美的,这在实践中可能是不现实的。因此,在本文中,我们研究了一个不匹配的模型,其中玩家认为揭示概率为$ \ {q_ \ ell \} _ {\ ell \ in \ Mathbb {n}} $,当他们确实是$ \ {p_ \ ell \ el \} _ {我们考虑对抗性和概率的顺序决策模型,并为最佳学习率提供封闭形式的表达式,在该速率上,与某个决策者相关的错误概率为零。我们证明了渐近学习率的行为中的几个新型相变。
We analyze a sequential decision making model in which decision makers (or, players) take their decisions based on their own private information as well as the actions of previous decision makers. Such decision making processes often lead to what is known as the \emph{information cascade} or \emph{herding} phenomenon. Specifically, a cascade develops when it seems rational for some players to abandon their own private information and imitate the actions of earlier players. The risk, however, is that if the initial decisions were wrong, then the whole cascade will be wrong. Nonetheless, information cascade are known to be fragile: there exists a sequence of \emph{revealing} probabilities $\{p_{\ell}\}_{\ell\geq1}$, such that if with probability $p_{\ell}$ player $\ell$ ignores the decisions of previous players, and rely on his private information only, then wrong cascades can be avoided. Previous related papers which study the fragility of information cascades always assume that the revealing probabilities are known to all players perfectly, which might be unrealistic in practice. Accordingly, in this paper we study a mismatch model where players believe that the revealing probabilities are $\{q_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$ when they truly are $\{p_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$, and study the effect of this mismatch on information cascades. We consider both adversarial and probabilistic sequential decision making models, and derive closed-form expressions for the optimal learning rates at which the error probability associated with a certain decision maker goes to zero. We prove several novel phase transitions in the behaviour of the asymptotic learning rate.