论文标题
隔离疲劳:在重新开放美国之前,在COVID-19爆发之前的社会距离措施中有史以来首次减少
Quarantine Fatigue: first-ever decrease in social distancing measures after the COVID-19 outbreak before reopening United States
论文作者
论文摘要
随着中国武汉的新型冠状病毒病(Covid-19)的出现及其在全球范围内迅速爆发,传染病改变了我们的日常旅行模式。在这项研究中,我们的团队通过利用集成数据面板调查了大流行期间人们日常出行模式的变化。为了结合人类流动性的各个方面,该团队专注于社会距离指数(SDI),该指数是根据五种基本移动措施计算的。 SDI模式在4月初显示了持续了大约两个星期的高原阶段。随后,这种现象随后是SDI的普遍下降,旅行数量增加以及居住在家的人数减少。我们称观察隔离疲劳。采用了变化率(ROC)方法来追溯隔离疲劳的开始日期,该日期已于4月15日。我们的分析表明,尽管存在州对国家的变化,但大多数州在同一时期开始经历隔离的疲劳现象。这一观察变得越来越重要,因为他们知道,直到4月下旬,所有州都没有正式宣布重新开放,这表明人们决定在正式重新开放宣布之前放松他们的社会疏远行为。此外,我们的分析表明,官方重新开放导致SDI迅速下降,这引起了第二波爆发的关注。国家之间的同步趋势还强调了全国决策态度对未来的重要性,因为每个国家的状况都取决于全国性的行为。
By the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, and its rapid outbreak worldwide, the infectious illness has changed our everyday travel patterns. In this research, our team investigated the changes in the daily mobility pattern of people during the pandemic by utilizing an integrated data panel. To incorporate various aspects of human mobility, the team focused on the Social Distancing Index (SDI) which was calculated based on five basic mobility measures. The SDI patterns showed a plateau stage in the beginning of April that lasted for about two weeks. This phenomenon then followed by a universal decline of SDI, increased number of trips and reduction in percentage of people staying at home. We called the observation Quarantine Fatigue. The Rate of Change (ROC) method was employed to trace back the start date of quarantine fatigue which was indicated to be April 15th. Our analysis showed that despite the existence of state-to-state variations, most states started experiencing a quarantine fatigue phenomenon during the same period. This observation became more important by knowing that none of the states had officially announced the reopening until late April showing that people decided to loosen up their social distancing practices before the official reopening announcement. Moreover, our analysis indicated that official reopening led to a rapid decline in SDI, raising the concern of a second wave of outbreak. The synchronized trend among states also emphasizes the importance of a more nationwide decision-making attitude for the future as the condition of each state depends on the nationwide behavior.