论文标题
揭示信用默认交换市场的中尺度结构,以改善投资组合风险建模
Uncovering the mesoscale structure of the credit default swap market to improve portfolio risk modelling
论文作者
论文摘要
金融市场分析和建模(包括信用违约掉期(CDS)市场)中最具挑战性的方面之一是存在一个新兴的,中间的结构层面,该结构位于单个金融实体的微观动态与整个市场的宏观动态之间。经常通过因素模型来寻求这种难以捉摸的介质组织水平,这些因素模型最终会根据地理区域和经济行业分解市场。但是,在更一般的层面上,可能以完全数据驱动的方法来揭示介观结构的存在,从而寻找财务时间序列之间经验相关矩阵的模块化且可能是分层的组织。在这种方法中,关键成分是相关矩阵适当的空模型的定义。最近的研究表明,针对网络开发的社区检测技术在应用于相关矩阵时本质上会产生偏见。因此,已经开发了一种基于随机矩阵理论的方法,该方法将系统的最佳分层分解确定为内部相关和相互反相关的社区。在此技术的基础上,我们在这里解决了CD市场的介绍结构,并确定无法追溯到标准行业/地区分类法的发行人组,从而无法获得标准因素模型。我们使用这种分解来引入一种新颖的默认风险模型,该模型被证明超过了传统的替代方案。
One of the most challenging aspects in the analysis and modelling of financial markets, including Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets, is the presence of an emergent, intermediate level of structure standing in between the microscopic dynamics of individual financial entities and the macroscopic dynamics of the market as a whole. This elusive, mesoscopic level of organisation is often sought for via factor models that ultimately decompose the market according to geographic regions and economic industries. However, at a more general level the presence of mesoscopic structure might be revealed in an entirely data-driven approach, looking for a modular and possibly hierarchical organisation of the empirical correlation matrix between financial time series. The crucial ingredient in such an approach is the definition of an appropriate null model for the correlation matrix. Recent research showed that community detection techniques developed for networks become intrinsically biased when applied to correlation matrices. For this reason, a method based on Random Matrix Theory has been developed, which identifies the optimal hierarchical decomposition of the system into internally correlated and mutually anti-correlated communities. Building upon this technique, here we resolve the mesoscopic structure of the CDS market and identify groups of issuers that cannot be traced back to standard industry/region taxonomies, thereby being inaccessible to standard factor models. We use this decomposition to introduce a novel default risk model that is shown to outperform more traditional alternatives.