论文标题
评估区域锁定政策在Covid-19的遏制中的有效性：巴基斯坦的证据
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Regional Lockdown Policies in the Containment of Covid-19: Evidence from Pakistan
论文作者
论文摘要
为了减慢19日共同的传播，巴基斯坦内部的行政区域对社会经济活动，宗教会众和人类运动施加了完整而部分的锁定限制。在这里，我们研究了区域锁定策略对COVID-19结果的影响。在对巴基斯坦国家卫生研究院（NIH）的官方数据进行了计量经济学分析（回归不连续性和负二项式回归）之后，我们发现这些策略并未导致所有地区的COVID-19 Caseload（积极案件和死亡）的类似水平。在整体案件（积极病例和死亡）的减少方面，与没有锁定相比，在四个地区，完整和部分锁定似乎是有效的：Bal路支省，吉尔吉特·巴尔顿斯坦（GT），伊斯兰堡资本领土（ICT）和Azad Jammu和Azad Jammu和Kashmir（AJK）。相反，在旁遮普省三个最大的省份，信德省和开伯尔·帕赫图赫瓦（KPK）中，完整和部分封锁似乎没有有效地包含病毒。观察到的区域异质性在锁定倡导者的有效性方面，根据人口，社会和经济因素仔细地使用锁定策略。
To slow down the spread of Covid-19, administrative regions within Pakistan imposed complete and partial lockdown restrictions on socio-economic activities, religious congregations, and human movement. Here we examine the impact of regional lockdown strategies on Covid-19 outcomes. After conducting econometric analyses (Regression Discontinuity and Negative Binomial Regressions) on official data from the National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan, we find that the strategies did not lead to a similar level of Covid-19 caseload (positive cases and deaths) in all regions. In terms of reduction in the overall caseload (positive cases and deaths), compared to no lockdown, complete and partial lockdown appeared to be effective in four regions: Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GT), Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). Contrarily, complete and partial lockdowns did not appear to be effective in containing the virus in the three largest provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The observed regional heterogeneity in the effectiveness of lockdowns advocates for a careful use of lockdown strategies based on the demographic, social, and economic factors.
