论文标题
关于冠状病毒流行和未报告的病例的动力学：智利案例
On the dynamics of the Coronavirus epidemic and the unreported cases: the Chilean case
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了未报告病例的作用，分析了Covid-19-19的流行病的动力学。在处理了一个非常缓慢的测试能力框架的第一部分之后，我们转向Liu，Magal，Seydi和Webb最近引入/实施的模型。首先，我们证明了相应的ODE的一些基本结构结果，例如S（t）转换为正限制。尽管相应曲线的最大值不一定是唯一的，但它们与经典SIR模型的模型相似。最后，我们在智利背景下实施了模型 - 但具有可变的传输速率。关键参数调整（即未报告案例的比例）是通过使用死亡率的参数来完成的。我们以未来研究的几个结论和界限得出结论。
We analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic taking into account the role of the unreported cases. After a first section in which we deal with a framework of very slow test capacity, we turn to the model recently introduced/implemented by Liu, Magal, Seydi and Webb. First, we prove some basic structural results for the corresponding ODE, as for instance the convergence of S(t) to a positive limit. These are similar to those of the classical SIR model, although the maxima of the corresponding curves are not necessarily unique. Finally, we implement the model -- but with a variable transmission rate -- in the Chilean context. A key parameter adjustment (namely, the fraction of unreported cases) is done via an argument using mortality rates. We conclude with several conclusions and lines of future research.
