论文标题

经济数字动力学系统中的图灵不稳定可以导致地理量表的模式形成

Turing Instability in an Economic-Demographic Dynamical System Can Lead to Pattern Formation on Geographical Scale

论文作者

Zincenko, Anna, Petrovskii, Sergei, Volpert, Vitaly

论文摘要

人口的空间分布明显异质,例如在城市和农村地区之间的人口密度显着差异。从历史的角度来看,即在几个世纪的时间范围内,人们普遍认为,人口稠密的地区的出现被普遍认为与更有利的环境和气候条件有关。在本文中,我们挑战了这一观点。我们首先在世界不同地区确定环境条件(通过温度,降水和高程量化)的几个区域大约在数千英里的时间内均匀。然后,我们检查了这些区域之间的种群分布,以表明,尽管环境的同质性,但它表现出明显的几乎有周期性的空间模式。基于这种明显的分歧,我们假设存在一种固有的机制,即使在统一的环境中也可以导致模式形成。我们考虑了耦合人口经济动力学的数学模型,并表明其在空间上均匀的局部稳定稳态可能会导致由于图灵不稳定性而引起的周期性空间模式。使用计算机模拟,我们表明,有趣的是,图灵模式的出现最终导致系统崩溃。

Spatial distribution of the human population is distinctly heterogeneous, e.g. showing significant difference in the population density between urban and rural areas. In the historical perspective, i.e. on the timescale of centuries, the emergence of the densely populated areas at their present locations is widely believed to be linked to more favourable environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper, we challenge this point of view. We first identify a few areas at different parts of the world where the environmental conditions (quantified by the temperature, precipitation and elevation) are approximately uniform over thousands of miles. We then examine the population distribution across those areas to show that, in spite of the homogeneity of the environment, it exhibits a clear nearly-periodic spatial pattern. Based on this apparent disagreement, we hypothesize that there exists an inherent mechanism that can lead to pattern formation even in a uniform environment. We consider a mathematical model of the coupled demographic-economic dynamics and show that its spatially uniform, locally stable steady state can give rise to a periodic spatial pattern due to the Turing instability. Using computer simulations, we show that, interestingly, the emergence of the Turing patterns eventually leads to the system collapse.

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