论文标题
对市场(非)效率,波动率群集和非线性依赖性的新方法来推断出强大的推断
New Approaches to Robust Inference on Market (Non-)Efficiency, Volatility Clustering and Nonlinear Dependence
论文作者
论文摘要
许多金融和经济变量,包括财务回报,都表现出非线性依赖性,异质性和重型尾巴。这些属性可能会使经济和金融市场中(非)效率和波动性聚类的分析使用传统方法,这些方法吸引了回报及其正方形的样本自相关功能的渐近正态性。 本文提出了解决上述问题的新方法。我们提供的结果激发了基于(小)绝对回报及其签名版本的(小)功率的市场(非)效率和波动性聚类的方法。 在一般时间序列(包括GARCH型过程)的情况下,我们进一步提供了对措施的强大推断的新方法。这些方法基于强大的$ t $统计测试,并提出了有关其适用性的新结果。在方法中,计算数据组的参数估计值(例如,非线性依赖度量的估计值),并且推断基于结果组估算中的$ t $统计信息。这会导致在现实世界金融市场满足的异质性和依赖假设下有效的强大推断。数值结果和经验应用证实了拟议方法的优势和广泛适用性。
Many financial and economic variables, including financial returns, exhibit nonlinear dependence, heterogeneity and heavy-tailedness. These properties may make problematic the analysis of (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering in economic and financial markets using traditional approaches that appeal to asymptotic normality of sample autocorrelation functions of returns and their squares. This paper presents new approaches to deal with the above problems. We provide the results that motivate the use of measures of market (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering based on (small) powers of absolute returns and their signed versions. We further provide new approaches to robust inference on the measures in the case of general time series, including GARCH-type processes. The approaches are based on robust $t-$statistics tests and new results on their applicability are presented. In the approaches, parameter estimates (e.g., estimates of measures of nonlinear dependence) are computed for groups of data, and the inference is based on $t-$statistics in the resulting group estimates. This results in valid robust inference under heterogeneity and dependence assumptions satisfied in real-world financial markets. Numerical results and empirical applications confirm the advantages and wide applicability of the proposed approaches.