论文标题
通过精神的影响:在线审议中声誉的说服力
Influence via Ethos: On the Persuasive Power of Reputation in Deliberation Online
论文作者
论文摘要
在线审议个人在塑造推动投票,购买,捐赠和其他关键离线行为的意见方面起着关键作用。然而,在线审议中,通过说服力改变意见的决定因素在很大程度上尚未得到探索。我们的研究研究了一个人的“声誉” $ \ textit {Ethos} $的说服力 - 使用7年的辩论中的7年小组讨论,其中包含包含成功说服的明确指标的论证平台。我们通过从过去的辩论竞争中构建声誉的工具,并通过在双重机器学习框架中使用语言的神经模型来控制声誉的仪器来确定声誉对说服力的因果影响。我们发现,一个人的声誉显着影响其说服率,超出了其论点的有效性,力量和表现。在我们的环境中,我们发现,拥有10个额外的声誉点会导致成功说服的可能性比平均平均水平增加了31%。我们还发现,声誉的影响是通过参数内容的特征来调节的,其方式与理论模型一致,该模型将声誉的有说服力的力量归因于认知超负荷下的启发式信息处理。我们讨论对促进在线公共和私人组织进行审议决策的平台的管理意义。
Deliberation among individuals online plays a key role in shaping the opinions that drive votes, purchases, donations and other critical offline behavior. Yet, the determinants of opinion-change via persuasion in deliberation online remain largely unexplored. Our research examines the persuasive power of $\textit{ethos}$ -- an individual's "reputation" -- using a 7-year panel of over a million debates from an argumentation platform containing explicit indicators of successful persuasion. We identify the causal effect of reputation on persuasion by constructing an instrument for reputation from a measure of past debate competition, and by controlling for unstructured argument text using neural models of language in the double machine-learning framework. We find that an individual's reputation significantly impacts their persuasion rate above and beyond the validity, strength and presentation of their arguments. In our setting, we find that having 10 additional reputation points causes a 31% increase in the probability of successful persuasion over the platform average. We also find that the impact of reputation is moderated by characteristics of the argument content, in a manner consistent with a theoretical model that attributes the persuasive power of reputation to heuristic information-processing under cognitive overload. We discuss managerial implications for platforms that facilitate deliberative decision-making for public and private organizations online.