论文标题
夏季假期和共同-19：大都会人去夏季省的影响
Summer vacation and COVID-19: effects of metropolitan people going to summer provinces
论文作者
论文摘要
现在，许多国家正在调查暑假对Covid-19的大流行的影响。在这里解决了一个特别的问题：如果暑假期间大量大都市人访问人口较少的省会会怎样？通过一个简单的流行模型，允许该省的短期和长期访问者，它的研究在确定这种夏季运动是否会导致该省人口中大量感染方面具有最大的影响力。该方法适用于瑞典东南海岸附近的哥德兰岛。结果表明，大都会和省群体之间的混合量以及到达后具有感染力的大都市人群的比例最有影响力。因此，最大程度地减少了聚集该省和大都市群体和/或减少短期访问者数量的事件可以大大减少传播，这也可以减少降低最初传染性的措施。
Many countries are now investigating what the effects of summer vacation might be on the COVID-19 pandemic. Here one particular such question is addressed: what will happen if large numbers of metropolitan people visit a less populated province during the summer vacation? By means of a simple epidemic model, allowing for both short and long-term visitors to the province, it is studied which features are most influential in determining if such summer movements will result in large number of infections among the province population. The method is applied to the island of Gotland off the South East coast of Sweden. It is shown that the amount of mixing between the metropolitan and province groups and the fraction of metropolitan people being infectious upon arrival are most influential. Consequently, minimizing events gathering both the province and metropolitan groups and/or reducing the number of short-term visitors could substantially decrease spreading, as could measures to lower the fraction initially infectious upon arrival.
