论文标题
对传染病的最佳反应
Optimal Responses to an Infectious Disease
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了简单的SIRS流行病学模型的最佳控制版本。政策制定者可以采用政策，以特定的经济成本降低感染和易感人群之间的接触率。疫苗的到来将立即结束流行病。对总或部分免疫进行了建模，而接触率可以表现出（用户指定的）季节性。该问题在电子表格环境中解决了。合理的参数选择会导致最佳政策，这些政策与不同国家之后的政策相似。如果有足够的医疗设施，则最终依赖于最终达到高免疫水平的温和反应是最佳的。另一方面，有限的医疗保健设施导致严格的锁定设施，而中等措施则可以使曲线方法变平。
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIRS epidemiology model. The policy maker can adopt policies to diminish the contact rate between infected and susceptible individuals, at a specific economic cost. The arrival of a vaccine will immediately end the epidemic. Total or partial immunity is modeled, while the contact rate can exhibit a (user specified) seasonality. The problem is solved in a spreadsheet environment. A reasonable parameter selection leads to optimal policies which are similar to those followed by different countries. A mild response relying on eventually reaching a high immunity level is optimal if ample health facilities are available. On the other hand limited health care facilities lead to strict lock downs while moderate ones allow a flattening of the curve approach.
