论文标题
使用调整后的时间依赖性SIRD模型在意大利建模省级Covid-19的流行数据
Modelling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们通过使用意大利卫生部的官方数据与从区域当局的日常正式新闻发布会和当地报纸网站的日常官方新闻发布会集成的官方数据，开发了意大利省级感染（即欧盟NUTS-3）水平的传播的预测模型。这种集成主要与1900导致特定的死亡数据有关，这些数据在NUTS-3级别无法从开放式官方数据渠道中获得。调整后的时间依赖性SIRD模型用于预测流行病的行为，特别是易感，感染，死者和恢复的人数。使用与实际数据的比较评估预测模型性能。
In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and from local newspaper websites. This integration is mainly concerned with COVID-19 cause specific death data which are not available at NUTS-3 level from open official data data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic, specifically the number of susceptible, infected, deceased and recovered people. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.
