论文标题

生产网络和流行病的传播:如何重新启动英国经济?

Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?

论文作者

Pichler, Anton, Pangallo, Marco, del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria, Lafond, François, Farmer, J. Doyne

论文摘要

我们分析了分阶段重新启动英国经济的不同方案的经济学和流行病学。我们的经济模型旨在解决COVID-19大流行的独特特征。社会距离措施会影响供求,并且投入输出约束在限制经济产出中起着关键作用。生产功能的标准模型不足以建模锁定的短期影响。 IHS Markit对行业分析师进行的一项调查使我们能够评估每个行业的哪些投入对于两个月的生产绝对必要。我们的模型还包括库存动态和失业和消费之间的反馈。我们证明,经济成果对生产功能的选择非常敏感,展示供应限制如何引起网络效应,并找到一些反直觉的效果,例如重新开放的实际上只能降低总体产出。特定于职业的数据和接触调查使我们能够估计不同行业如何影响疾病的传播率。我们研究了六个不同的重新开放情况,对R0的增加和GDP的增长提出了我们的最佳估计。我们的结果表明,存在合理的妥协,R0的增长相对较小,并且可以大大提高经济产出。这对应于这样一种情况,在这种情况下,所有非消费者都在行业重新开放,学校仅针对需要育儿的工人开放,并且每个可以在家工作的人都继续在家工作。

We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.

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