论文标题
由症状，无症状和有症状的阶段引起的网络流行病的相变和控制措施
Phase transitions and control measures for network epidemics caused by infections with presymptomatic, asymptomatic,and symptomatic stages
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了与小世界网络上流行病的三种控制方法相关的相变。在SARS-COV-2的行为中，我们构建了一种病毒的理论SIR模型，该模型在两个可能的途径中表现出预症状，无症状和有症状阶段。使用基于代理的小型世界网络的模拟，我们观察到相关的流行病差异的相转换与以下方面的差异有关：1）具有固定依从性的全球社会距离。 2）当感染了阈值的接触数量时，会单独启动社会隔离。 3）病毒脱落率。感染总数的主要驱动力是病毒脱落率，社交距离的可能性是下一个关键因素。当响应单个受感染的接触而启动时，单独启动的社会隔离是有效的。对于这些控制措施中的每一个，随着测量强度的变化，感染总数表现出急剧的过渡。
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. For each of these control measures, the total number of infections exhibits a sharp phase transition as the strength of the measure is varied.
