论文标题
繁殖矩阵的流行病和封锁城市
Reproduction matrix for an epidemic and lockdowns in a city
论文作者
论文摘要
我们认为在一个地理位置上分为不同地区的城市中流行病。我们在地区之间介绍了复制品矩阵$ \ r = \ bigl（r（i，j）\ bigr）$，其中$ r（i，j）$是从$ i $ $ i $的个人感染的地区$ j $中的平均个人数量。我们根据对矩阵$ \ r $的研究进行了分析城市部分封锁的政策，即一组地区，其中与锁定区中的地区相对应的行和列将其设置为零。只要提供相关信息，该模式也可以应用于分为区域或其他适当单位的国家 /地区。最后，我们通过分析矩阵〜$ \ r $，该矩阵$ \ r $是在Covid-19在智利圣地亚哥传播的，并借助基于代理的模拟器来生成替代区数据。
We consider an epidemic spreading in a city which is divided geographically into different districts. We introduce the reproduction matrix $\R=\bigl(R(i,j)\bigr)$ between districts, where $R(i,j)$ is the mean number of individuals in district $j$ infected by an individual from district $i$. We analyse policies of partial lockdowns of the city, that is of a set of districts, based on the study of matrix $\R$, where rows and columns corresponding to districts in lockdown are set to zero. This schema can also be applied to a country divided into regions or other appropriate units, provided the relevant information is available. We conclude by analyzing a matrix~$\R$ which was constructed for the spread of COVID-19 in Santiago, Chile, with the aid of an agent-based simulator for generating surrogate district data.
