论文标题
COVID-19的数学模型19 Sao Paulo- Brazil的干预场景
Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for Sao Paulo- Brazil
论文作者
论文摘要
一个流行病学隔室模型用于模拟社会距离策略，以遏制199号大流行，并防止巴西圣保罗的第二波浪潮。使用遗传算法的优化来确定最佳溶液。我们的结果表明，圣保罗的最佳案例策略是维持或增加至少60天的社交距离的当前幅度，并将当前的个人保护行为水平提高至少10％（例如，佩戴面罩，适当的手卫生并避免集聚）。随后在两年内每80天进行一次逐步降低方法的长期振荡，以持续的保护行为。
An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for Sao Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.
