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We investigate the effects of a nearby free surface on the stability of a flexible plate in axial flow. Confinement by rigid boundaries is known to affect flag flutter thresholds and fluttering dynamics significantly, and this work considers the effects of a more general confinement involving a deformable free surface. To this end, a local linear stability is proposed for a flag in axial uniform flow and parallel to a free surface, using one-dimensional beam and potential flow models to revisit this classical fluid-structure interaction problem. The physical behaviour of the confining free surface is characterized by the Froude number, corresponding to the ratio of the incoming flow velocity to that of the gravity waves. After presenting the simplified limit of infinite span (i.e. two-dimensional problem), the results are generalized to include finite-span and lateral confinement effects. In both cases, three unstable regimes are identified for varying Froude number. Rigidly-confined flutter is observed for low Froude number, i.e. when the free surface behaves as a rigid wall, and is equivalent to the classical problem of the confined flag. When the flow and wave velocities are comparable, a new instability is observed before the onset of flutter (i.e. at lower reduced flow speed) and results from the resonance of a structural bending wave and one of the fundamental modes of surface gravity waves. Finally, for large Froude number (low effect of gravity), flutter is observed with significant but passive deformation of the free surface in response of the flag's displacement.