论文标题
流行病期间经济活动与健康之间的最佳权衡
Optimal Trade-Off Between Economic Activity and Health During an Epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
本文考虑了一个简单的模型，其中社会规划师可以通过一个参数来影响感染波的传播强度，从而影响经济活动和人口健康。人们认为，当同时感染的人数超过医疗保健能力时，人口健康仅受到负面影响。主要发现是，如果（i）策划者对经济活动的积极影响，并且（ii）对经济的锁定比较短的时间更长更有危害，那么最佳政策是（弱）在某个时候（弱）超过医疗保健能力。
This paper considers a simple model where a social planner can influence the spread-intensity of an infection wave, and, consequently, also the economic activity and population health, through a single parameter. Population health is assumed to only be negatively affected when the number of simultaneously infected exceeds health care capacity. The main finding is that if (i) the planner attaches a positive weight on economic activity and (ii) it is more harmful for the economy to be locked down for longer than shorter time periods, then the optimal policy is to (weakly) exceed health care capacity at some time.
