论文标题
Covid-19的动态传播：来自黎巴嫩的证据
The Dynamics of COVID-19 spread: Evidence from Lebanon
论文作者
论文摘要
我们通过采用两种不同的方法来探讨黎巴嫩2019年冠状病毒疾病的传播：Steir模型，这是一种修改后的SEIR模型，占了旅行效果的修改，并且是反复的迭代模型。自第一个诊断案例以来，我们符合可用的每日数据，直到2020年6月底，我们预测与不同水平的社交距离措施和旅行流入相关的传播情况。我们确定黎巴嫩和所有随后的动态的初始生殖传播率。在重复的迭代（RI）模型中，我们迭代当前感染者的可用数据，以预测在几种可能的触发情况下的未来感染。在这两种模型中，我们的结果都表明，更严格的缓解措施将减缓疾病的传播。另一方面，正如Steir所表明的那样，目前的措施放松和国际飞行的部分恢复将引发第二次感染的爆发，并且严重程度取决于放松的程度。我们建议对缓解措施进行强有力的机构和公众承诺，以避免不受控制的传播。
We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon by adopting two different approaches: the STEIR model, which is a modified SEIR model accounting for the effect of travel, and a repeated iterations model. We fit available daily data since the first diagnosed case until the end of June 2020 and we forecast possible scenarios of contagion associated with different levels of social distancing measures and travel inflows. We determine the initial reproductive transmission rate in Lebanon and all subsequent dynamics. In the repeated iterations (RI) model we iterate the available data of currently infected people to forecast future infections under several possible scenarios of contagion. In both models, our results suggest that tougher mitigation measures would slow down the spread of the disease. On the other hand, the current relaxation of measures and partial resumption of international flights, as the STEIR reveals, would trigger a second outbreak of infections, with severity depending on the extent of relaxation. We recommend strong institutional and public commitment to mitigation measures to avoid uncontrolled spread.
